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The presidential election process in 2008 is largely being driven by the politics of race and gender. With the assumed certainty that either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will be the candidate chosen by Democrats and the possibility that the one nominated will select the other to be their running mate, forming what Democrats are referring to as the “dream ticket,” Republicans may be persuaded to pick Condaleza Rice as the running mate for John McCain or whoever becomes the Republican nominee in order to be competitive in the arena featuring the politics of race and gender.
Obama has demonstrated on the national level what observers have noted in local politics. Given the option of voting for a black or white candidate, about 90 percent of black voters will cast their ballot for the black candidate. That is not the case with most other groups such as whites and women, who tend to vote without regard to skin color. This has been demonstrated by the fact that Obama has received 25 percent or more of votes cast by white Democrats in each state where primaries have been held to date.
This has become a problem for Sen. Clinton. She can count on receiving up to 75 percent of the white Democrat vote, but only 10 to 15 percent of the black vote. In areas with a large black population and a large turnout, she will lose. She is being given no chance to win the contest in Washington, DC with its large black population. In areas with a small percentage of black voters, she can also lose, because white voters do not generally vote based on skin color. Television reporters, even on Fox News, tend to avoid this subject.
Barack Obama won the South Carolina primary where white and black Democrats are about even in numbers. President Bill Clinton was severely criticized when he pointed out that Rev. Jesse Jackson also won the South Carolina primary when he was running for president.
Republicans can only count on getting a small percentage of the black vote. Usually they get between five and twenty-five percent. With both Clinton and Obama being far-left anti-war candidates, the Republican ticket could draw a larger than usual black vote, especially if someone like Rice is on the ticket to neutralize the issues of race and gender.
If John McCain is the Republican candidate, and it looks like that will be the case, unless he fails to get enough delegates to lock up the nomination prior to the convention, he will have a hard time motivating the conservative base to go to the polls in large numbers. If Clinton is the candidate chosen by Democrats, her presence on the ballot will motivate conservatives to vote for whoever is her opponent.
The McCain phenomenon exists because the opposition was split several ways. John McCain received votes from moderate Republicans, conservative Democrats who could not stomach Clinton or Obama and independent voters in South Carolina where anyone can vote in a Republican Primary if they are registered to vote. In South Carolina, conservative Republican voters were split between Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. McCain won the Palmetto State with only 36 percent of the vote including crossover Democrats.
If McCain had only one or two opponents as he has now with Huckabee and Ron Paul, he would have lost big, with his opponents receiving as much as 64 percent of the vote, close to the Huckabee win over McCain in the Kansas Caucuses, Saturday, by 60 to 24 percent.
Republicans have a real challenge ahead if McCain is the candidate. Should conservatives sit-out the election and not get out the vote, while Democrats are energized, it will result in a national disaster. Two or three liberal judges will be appointed to the Supreme Court. Democrats will increase their numbers in the House and Senate and sweep local elections. Within 4 years, under that scenario, there would be civil unrest, martial law and our republic would be transformed into a socialist third world dictatorship.
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