Niger, Nigeria, France, and the West African Crisis

The Looming Shadows of War

A Political, Economic, and Military Briefing

The Republic of Niger is a West African nation of 25.4 million people. Its capital, Niamey, has more than a million people.  Niger was a French colony until 1958 when it became an autonomous part of the French Community. It declared its full independence in 1960 but maintained strong economic ties to France. The official language of Niger is French, although seven other languages are recognized and widely spoken, including Hausa, Zarma, Fulani, and Arabic. Niger is over 99 percent Muslim. The Niger River flows through Niger, but Niger is landlocked and does not border the Atlantic Gulf of Guinea as does its more populous neighbor Nigeria on its southern border.

Niger borders Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso,  Mali, Algeria, Libya, and Chad. These are all part of  the Saher, an African climate belt just south of the Sahara Desert. The climate varies from arid to tropical near the Gulf. Nigeria is generally pronounced properly by Americans, but Niger is French and is pronounced something like “nee-ZHAIR.”

On July 26, Niger’s Presidential Guard detained President Mohammed Bazoum, elected in 2021, and Presidential Guard Commander General Abdourahamane Tchiani proclaimed himself leader of a new military junta and head of the transitional government. This was the fifth military coup in Niger since its 1960 independence and the second since 2010.  This was the ninth coup or attempted coup in West and Central Africa in just three years. This included Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Guinea. The Niger coup appears to have widespread public support in Niger, but is strongly opposed by France, the United States, the European Union, and a few West  African members of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), most notably Nigeria, which is the most populous country in Africa with 230 million people. The Russian Foreign Ministry does not formally back the coup, saying it risks dangerous destabilization in West African states. However, the Ukrainians are blaming the coup on the Russians.

Nigeria has threatened military intervention unless President Bazoum is returned to power. Mali and Burkina Faso have said they would consider a Nigerian attack on Niger an attack on them. Libya and Algeria are also opposed to Nigerian intervention against Niger. Senegal would be most likely to support Nigerian intervention in Nigel. However, it seems that most ECOWAS nations do not support military intervention. De facto, it is only the Nigerian government that is threatening intervention in Niger, and the Nigerian Senate has so far expressed its desire for peaceful settlement. Nigeria was a British Colony that received its independence in 1960. Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, has 1.7 million people, but Lagos, its largest city has an astonishing 26 million people.

Niger contains some of the world’s largest uranium deposits and is the main supplier of Uranium to the European Union, especially France, which has many nuclear power plants. One saying in Niger is that two of every three light bulbs in France are powered by uranium from Niger. Other major suppliers of Uranium to the European Union are Kazakhstan and Russia.

Despite its mineral wealth in uranium and gold, Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world, usually ranking in the bottom three to seven in economic living conditions. According to American journalist, Eugene Puryear, 43 percent of Nigeriens subsist on less than $1.90 per day. There is a small wealthy class, but the GDP PPP (PPP stands for price parity adjustment for actual cost of living) for Niger is only about $299 billion USD, and per capita GDP PPP is $1,443 USD per year, 186^th  of 192 nations in the world ranked by the  International Monetary Fund (IMF).  The adult literacy rate in Niger is only 37 percent.

Niger has an Armed Forces of about 13,000, but there are 1,500 French troops and 1,100 American troops in Niger as well as 240 Italian and 60 German military personnel.  There are about 200 Russian Wagner Group soldiers in Mali helping to train the Mali Army in anti-terrorism operations. There are some unverified claims that Wagner troops have participated in strikes against Al-Qaeda terrorists in Mali.

The Nigerian Armed Forces have approximately 230,000 active personnel. In 2010, the population of Nigeria was about 49 percent Christian and 49 percent Muslim. The Muslims are concentrated in the north, while the Christians are most concentrated in urban areas and the south. Since about 2010, there has been a campaign of ethnic genocide against Christians by radical Boko Haram (Al-Qaeda) Muslims in which over 41,000 people have been killed. Pew Research estimates Muslims had become a majority of just over 50 Percent by 2015. Boko Haram activity has declined since March 2022, when 40,000 surrendered to the Nigerian government.  

Bola Tinubu was elected  President of Nigeria in March 2023 and took office in May,  following the autocratic rule of former Army Major Geneal, President Muhammadu Buhari since 2015. Tinubu was a supporter of Buhari but comes from a Christian educational background. He describes himself as a progressive, believing in egalitarianism, social justice, liberty, and fundamental rights and is expected to be more moderate than Buhari. He has strong American connections. He graduated from Chicago State University in 1979 with a BS in Accounting.

Nigeria’s 2023 national GDP PPP is $1.36 trillion, and its GDP PPP per capita is $6,122 USD per year, ranking number 141 of 192 nations.  By comparison, South Africa’s per capita GDP PPP is $16,091 at 97^th place. The U.S. is at eighth place with $80,035 and France is 27^th with $58,010.  Only two Sub-Saharan African  countries exceed $19,000 GDP PP per capita. All 15 of the bottom 15 of 192 nations rated by the IMF, except North Korea, are in Sub-Saharan Africa.

On the other hand, Africa is estimated to contain 30 percent of the remaining natural resources in the world (Aljazeera 2018).  However, According to Statista, the top ten richest nations in natural resources are in order: Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, China, Brazil, Australia, Iraq, and Venezuela.   

West African borders are generally colonial borders and generally do not reflect exact historical ethnic, tribal, and language distinctions. For example, the Hausa tribal ethnics are 53 percent in Niger and also the largest ethnic element in Nigeria at 30 percent. Tribal ethnicity is often strongly tied to religion. Both the Hausa and Fulani are 99 percent Muslim, and the Igbo in Nigeria are 98 percent Christian.

According to Puryear, the main reason for the Niger coup is an explosion of realized  economic want, desperation, and resentment spreading over all of West and Central Africa. When democratically elected governments do not yield prosperity, then military government becomes an alternative that might prove a more powerful and expeditious route to desperately needed economic progress. Much of the dissatisfaction  comes in the form of resentment against “Neo-colonialism,” in which the former colonial power—France in Niger’s case—lavishly benefits those connected to its power and prosperity at the expense of the vast majority of the population.  A small minority of politically influential native politicians and businesses connected to the former colonial power  prosper from cheap native labor and profitable natural resource exports, which are also profitable to distributors of the resources in France and the European Union.

Native miliary officers, including those educated or trained by Western powers, are more likely to be of middle-class or upwardly mobile laboring background and more sympathetic to the people and more interested in equitable distribution of the wealth generated by important natural resources. Many democratically elected African leaders fear the spread of this anti-Neo-Colonialist resentment that has caused a stream of military coups in recent years.

Military leaders and most of the citizens in Niger and several other West African countries have also expressed unhappiness with government failure to crack down on Al-Qaeda related terrorism.

U.S. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has been in close touch with Nigerian President Tinubu and arrived on August 7 to threaten the Niger junta with strong economic sanctions and military force unless they restored deposed President Bazoum. However, neither Bazoum nor junta leader General Tchiani would agree to see her. She had to place her message with subordinate officials.  In her talk to journalists and other African officials, she mentioned a common commitment to democratic values and warned against the dangers of Wagner Group presence in African countries, also indirectly warning against letting Russia get a wedge in African affairs.

Russia and China, have in fact, been making strong efforts to gain favorable economic, political, and diplomatic favor in Africa. Neither the Russians nor the Chinese shackle their aid with political or cultural demands. The Russians, seeing education as a major African need, plan to spend more on educational help to Africa, including creation of more study programs for promising African students in Russian educational institutions.  

However, according to Alex Christoforou with the Duran on August 11, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has approved military and economic sanction measures. According to the BBC, Russia responded by warning the ECOWAS not to take military action.  

This would likely be a huge mistake. The main threat of this political development is that vitally necessary uranium for nuclear powerplants might be dramatically reduced in France (56 plants) and probably six other Western European countries with 42 plants (Wikipedia nuclear power plant statistics). These 98 or so plants need fuel but Niger continues to need income from uranium sales to a dependable sustaining customer base. A reasonable price can be negotiated without resorting to other sources or dysfunctional diplomatic, economic, and military measures.       

French, American, or Nigerian military action would most likely result in unacceptable long-term uranium shortages and long-term African distrust of American, French, British, and European Union politics, diplomacy, and promises. Sanctions are likely to have the same effect,  as they would hurt directly or indirectly many other African and European nations, just as NATO sanctions on Russia have backfired and punished Western Europe.

Moreover, military action is likely to create a stream of millions of new African migrants to Europe, which is already an enormous economic and social burden and is also becoming an issue  threatening European cultural and civilizational survival. Excessive immigration is now a major factor in European elections. Europeans and Americans need to recover their senses. “Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.”