Putin’s June 22 Security Council Meeting on Ukraine

A Review of Ukraine’ s Recent Counteroffensive 

Prigozhin’s Strange and Alarming Rebellion

On Thursday, June 22, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin held a videoconference with the permanent members of the Russian Federation Security Council. This first part of this videoconference was available to the public and reviewed Ukrainian losses of equipment and manpower and other factors since the June 4 beginning of Ukrainian counteroffensive  operations. 

The following list of members attending should give readers a view of many of the most powerful national security leaders in the Russian Federation: 

• Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev
• Secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev
• Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov
• Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu
• Director of the Federal Security Service, Alexander Bornikov
• Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshki
• Federation Council Speaker, Valentina Matviyenko
• State Duma Speaker, Vyacheslav Volodin  
• Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, Anton Vaino
• Presidential Representative for Environmental Protection, Ecology, and Transport, Sergei Ivanov
• Putin first asked Minister of Defense Shoigu to summarize the situation in Ukraine. I have abbreviated this below:

“After almost 16 days of active combat operations, the adversary sustained heavy losses and is no longer as aggressive as it used to be. Right now, it is regrouping and bringing its decimated units to strength. Forces that could later amount an offensive are being drawn from various units and battalions. In other sectors [of Ukraine], the adversary still has forces for further offensive operations, despite considerable equipment and personnel losses.”

Following this, Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council gave an account of Ukrainian equipment losses during the last 16 days: 

• 246 tanks, which included 13 Western tanks [including some German Leopard 2 tanks.]
• 595 armored combat vehicles and armored cars. This included 152 infantry fighting vehicles of which 59 were Western models.
• 279 artillery systems and mortars, including 48 Western systems. 
• 42 multiple launch rocket systems
• 2 surface-to-air missile systems 
• 10 tactical fighter aircraft [probably MiG 29s and Su-27s]
• 4 helicopters
• 264 drones and 424 additional vehicles.  

President Putin then asked about Ukrainian military personnel losses. Patrushev reported that the grand total over 16 days was over 13,000. The Russians usually count enemy losses as dead plus seriously wounded, who will not be returning to combat service in the near future. The more than 13,000 total was not a simple sum of estimates from various sectors and engagements. This was the summary of casualties reported by Ukrainian commanders and intercepted by Russian radio intelligence. 

Shoigu then summarized the equipment Ukraine expects to receive from the West, mostly in the last six months of 2023, which many estimate will be too late. This includes another 250 tanks, including 120 Leopard 1 and 2 models and 31 U.S. Abrams tanks. About 95 Russian T-72 tanks of former Warsaw Pact NATO members will be included. In addition, 822 armored vehicles, including 740 Western models are planned. In addition, NATO plans to supply 273 155-mm artillery systems during 2023. There was no mention of F-16s that the Ukrainians have asked for. 

Shoigu also reported recruiting is going well. Another 114,000 contractual enlistments and 52,000 volunteers are already in training. They will not be committed to battle without a full six-months in training. 

 Putin concluded the public portion of the video conference with some comments:

“From this we can conclude that they [NATO] can certainly send in additional equipment, but the mobilization reserve is not unlimited. Ukraine’s western allies really seem determined to fight with Russia to the last Ukrainian. At the same time, we must proceed from the fact that the enemy’s offensive potential has not been exhausted; they have strategic reserves yet unused, and I ask you to keep this in mind when making fighting strategies. You need to proceed from reality.” 

Putin then closed the open part of the meeting to discuss “the main topic.”  This has been interpreted by Alexander Mercouris and others as an indication that the Russians will proceed with their own offensive as soon as they have exhausted Ukrainian manpower and equipment engaged in the current Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

Alexander Mercouris is a multi-source British-Greek daily summarizer of Ukraine War and other major foreign policy and defense news. He broadcasts on the internet from London. On June 24, he cross-checked the Russian estimation of Ukrainian casualties suffered during the current offensive with other reliable sources. A Swedish source estimated 13,500, but assumed they were all KIA (killed in action). Col. Douglas Macgregor had also estimated 15,000 KIA from European sources.  In any case, the Ukrainian offensive has suffered devastating and unsustainable  casualties in the first 16 to 18 days of their offensive and have made essentially no progress or even come withing six miles of the major Russian Defense lines. Instead, they were stalled by minefields and nearly obliterated by artillery barrages and helicopter attacks. 

There was no public discussion of overall Ukrainian or Russian casualties in the War in the June 22 Security Council Meeting.  However, Mercouris had revealed on June 23 a BBC and Media Zona study estimating that there had been only 22,500 Russian KIA. It is not clear this included Chechens, Donbass militias, and the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group may have had 5,000 KIA. Independent estimates gathered by Col. Douglas Macgregor indicate Ukrainian military KIA may now be over 200,000 of an original Army and Ready Reserves of 600,000, the largest Army in NATO next to Turkey. 

Mercouris and Alex Chrstoforou are an independent intelligence analysis team called “The Duran.” Mercouris operates from London, while Christoforou usually operates from Cyprus or Athens, Greece. I strongly suspect they are both former British MI6 intelligence analysts.  They can be found on Rumble and other sources. 

Several independent intelligence analysts, including former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, Col. Macgregor, and former Marine intelligence officer and Russian expert Scott Ritter believe the Russians are in position to win the war by October 2023. These also believe the Russians do not want to go past the Dnieper River but could possibly take Russian-speaking Odessa. If confronted by NATO or Western troops in Ukraine, they might go all the way to the Polish and Rumanian borders. 

Meanwhile the focus of the world has turned to the strange and alarming rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Wagner Group mercenary forces. Prigozhin’s Wagner Group made important contributions to defeating the Ukrainians in the long battle for Bakhmut that cost the Ukrainians between 35,000 and 50,000 KIA. Actually, over 80 percent of those casualties were inflicted by Russian Army artillery. Prigozhin, however, had become a troublesome, critical, complaining, but ambitious and self-centered maverick beginning in February of this year. His recent statements and accusations against the Russian Defense Ministry and indirectly even Putin have become problematic. Although he seems to be the great hope of the Western media and Neo-con regime-change-oriented Western politicians, his statements are so far removed from reality that some degree of stress-induced dementia may be involved. Some have previously commented that Prigozhin was showing signs of PTSD.  He was tolerated, however, because of his undeniable contribution to the overall victory at Bakhmut and past loyalties. His recent remarks, and actions are now being termed “treasonous” by Russian military officers and Putin’s cabinet. 

Prigozhin’s most recent remarks seem to embrace the Ukrainian narrative of the war. There may be interesting dots to connect here. However, Prigozhin has little or no support in the Russian armed forces, political system, or the vast majority of the Russian people. His latest statements have only limited support within the Wagner Group.  But some of his more loyal troops recently placed themselves in a threatening position within the city of Rostov on Don. 

Some of Prigozhin’s  recent statements and accusations against the Russian Defense Ministry and implicating even Putin have become extremely problematic. Until just hours ago, about 5,000 of his loyalists were headed for a confrontation with  Defense Minister Shoigu and Russian Forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov in Moscow.  Putin has declared it a mutiny that will be put down immediately and called Prigozhin’s actions a dangerous “stab in the back” to Russia, comparing it to the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. However, I believe Prigozhin’s real conflict with Shoigu and Gerasimov is that they sensed his growing mental imbalance and were attempting at least temporarily to marginalize his operational influence. 

Prigozhin, 62,  owns several restaurant and catering chains in Russia, which also cater to the Kremlin. At the age of 20,  he  was convicted for fraud, robbery, and theft and served nine years in detention from 1981 to 1990 (age 20 to 29). On release, he became spectacularly successful selling hot dogs and then acquiring other businesses. Besides restaurants and catering, he  has also been involved in the grocery, casino, and internet research business. He founded the Wagner military mercenary group in 2014. He has been accused by the U.S. FBI of interfering with U.S. elections through his internet research firm. 

     An informative 42-minute video and analysis on the Prigozhin Rebels has been posted by Alexander Mercouris on Rumble and other websites.  Mercouris believes the Prigozhin rebellion may hurt Putin and Russia by encouraging their Western enemies to continue their costly and dangerous war in Ukraine. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson has termed Ukraine’s current counteroffensive the “Kamikaze” offensive because of its almost suicidal casualties and loss of equipment. Many have recently termed the whole Biden Administration Ukraine Project as suicidal to Ukraine and to U.S. and Western European interests.  

    As of late Saturday afternoon, June 24, Prigozhin backed down on his challenge to Moscow based on a security deal negotiated by Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko and advice by other allied leaders. In the end, I believe Putin realized Prigozhin had suffered a nervous breakdown, and given his previous service, allowed him an honorable offramp to peace and safety in Belarus.