The present situation in Venezuela seems to be a foreign policy conundrum: Maduro is in custody, but the country is still extremely unstable. Trump has been promulgating a “Make Venezuela Great Again” idea by having their vast oil reserves under the control of the US government as well as American oil companies who have had a rough ride with the country.
However, underneath the alleged benefits of having Venezuela sell their reserves exclusively to the US, there is a game of chess going on that needs to be pointed out—and applauded.
First, some background.
In 1976, then Venezuela President Carlos Perez nationalized the oil companies while US oil companies were doing a brisk business operating in the country. But this was not a hijacking in that Perez and his government compensated these companies to the tune of $1 Billion, a goodly sum fifty years ago.
Now, contrast that with the socialist government of Hugo Chavez, who demanded more control of the oil reserves by demanding that US oil corporations hand over 60% of their operating portion to the Venezuelan government. Exxon and Conoco flat out refused and left the country. Chevron and BP agreed to the terms but pulled operations way back and operated on a minimal basis.
There was equipment and such that were left in the country when US interests departed that Chavez felt no need to compensate.
Hence, there is some credence to Trump’s statements about Venezuela stealing equipment and profiting from it.
So, what is the upshot of Trump’s seemingly imperialistic moves in South America; what is the impact on the US and the world?
It is simply this: Stating the obvious, the US has enemies. In particular China is an economic powerhouse, not to mention the vast advances they have made in their military. Russia has also been cozying with the Maduro regime.
China buys 68% of Venezuela’s oil output. China is an energy hungry country in many ways. Now consider the impact of China’s needs being cut by 68%.
This energy deficit would mean not enough oil to power their military to its full strength.
Consider what this would mean to the idea of invading Taiwan. There would simply not be enough energy to power an invasion force. The idea would have to be put on hold or dismissed totally.
Thus, a major conflagration in Asia, and possible world war, would be avoided.
China has also made great strides in AI technology, which requires tremendous amounts of energy. No oil, no energy—and their AI, which surely is being tinkered for their military, would come to a screeching halt.
BYD automotive, now the biggest EV producer in the world—even above Tesla—would have their assembly lines go quiet.
Seemingly, the US would be virtually unchallenged in the technology sector.
China, in this scenario, might turn into a giant paper tiger—growling, but having no teeth.
And what of Russia?
While they really have no need of Venezuelan crude, they do have a hunger to have a warm water port for their navy in our hemisphere—and Venezuela fit the bill.
But with the US influence now baring down on the country, and with US forces interdicting even Russian flagged tankers, Russia may quietly put their tail between their legs and slink off into the night.
Clearly, Trump’s oil “grab” is a lot more than that; it is a chess move made to put or adversaries in check, and to prevent future conflagrations.
In that, the so-called “Donroe Doctrine” may prove to be a very valuable concept indeed—and a weapon of peace.
