Oreshnik Number 2

The Russian Hypersonic Missile and Its Message

On January 8, the Russians fired an Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile at a largely underground natural gas storage facility near Lviv, in western Ukraine, from central Russia. It is the second Oreshnik that has been used in the Ukraine-NATO Proxy War against Russia. The Oreshnik is now in serial production. The first experimental test of the Oreshnik against Ukraine was on November 21, 2024, against an industrial aerospace military plant near Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth largest city,  on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River.

Lviv (Lwow in Polish) is only 43 miles from the Polish border and was part of Poland until 1939. With a population of 723,000, it is the fifth largest city in Ukraine.  It was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire until the end of World War I in 1918. Lviv has been the center of anti-Russian politics and ideology—often described as neo-Nazi—in Ukraine, contrasting sharply with eastern and southern Ukraine, which is predominantly Russian ethnic, Russian-speaking, and pro-Russian politically.

The underground natural gas storage facility is reported by several sources to contain more than 40 percent of Ukraine’s natural gas reserves and also natural gas storage for several allied NATO nations. 

The Oreshnik is classified as an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), having a range of 600 to 1,000 miles. The Oreshnik that hit the Dnipro aerospace plant in 2024 traveled 772 miles and hit its target precisely. Some U.S. Defense officials believe the Oreshnik could potentially have a range of 3,000 miles, depending on the weight of the warhead. At a given available  power, you can fire a golf ball a lot further than a large Ford-150. The January 8 Oreshnik was fired from the Russian city of Kapustin Yar, a Russian Air Force and missile training base 1,162 miles from Lviv. This range of almost 1,200 miles would be a threat to many NATO capitals and American military bases.  

One of the most important characteristics of the Oreshnik is its terrific hypersonic speed of Mach 9 to 11, nine to eleven times the speed of sound.  Ten times the speed of sound, at  which both the recent and 2024 Oreshnik hit their targets is 7,670 miles per hour, or one mile in less than half a second. According to both Russian and American scientists, the technology to intercept an Oreshnik does not currently exist. For now, and probably for many years, the Oreshnik is unstoppable. In both Oreshnik strikes, the US, NATO, and Ukraine were notified about three hours ahead of launch so that the Oreshnik launch would not be mistaken for an ICBM nuclear attack on the United States or Europe.  

The Oreshnik uses its hypersonic speed, accuracy, and the power of super-heated gaseous metal for its powerful blast, which leaves no nuclear radiation. According to Russian President Putin, an Oreshnik blast can be about one-third as powerful as lower-level nuclear bomb blasts. Theoretically, Oreshnik can carry a nuclear warhead, but the speed and engine-heat would have to be modified considerably to make it a manageable  and precise weapon. The fact that Oreshnik’s warhead power is not nuclear and does not spread radioactive waste is a strategic political factor useful in making powerful strikes without touching off disastrous nuclear exchange. It is, of course,  a more humanitarian alternative to nuclear escalation and strikes. Russian missile strikes  against Ukrainian military-industrial and utility targets are usually done at night to minimize civilian casualties.

 About 6 to 12  mobile Oreshnik systems reputedly capable of nuclear modification have been deployed in eastern Belarus. Belarus borders Ukraine, Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Oreshnik can carry multiple guided warheads.  According to MIT missile and nuclear expert Ted Postal, the most recent Oreshnik strike near Lviv had six warhead cannisters, each having 6-12  munitions packages or decoys.  Thus an Oreshnik strike can look like multiple hits covering targets separated by miles.  Contrary, to  Postal’s initial 2024 analysis, Oreshnik is not a deep strike weapon than explodes 150 feet below ground, but makes a shallower crater similar to asteroid strikes on the moon or earth.  However, it can do considerable underground damage.  According to Postal,  Oreshnik munitions can be programed to explode at ground impact or above ground.

Postal believes the Oreshnik evolved from the Russian ICBM RS-26, which was a two-stage rocket. He now believes Oreshnik in a single stage ballistic missile. It is fired on a high trajectory to heights 90 to 120 miles above the earth’s surface and then turns down in an almost vertical trajectory with no atmosphere resistance, reaching a velocity of Mach 12 or better until the last 30 miles, when the earth’s atmosphere begins to slow it down. Nevertheless, it arrives on target at velocities of Mach 10 or better.

According to Postal. the Lviv Oreshnik had 66 munition packages spread over more than a mile. These packages were probably equivalent to 150 to 200 pounds TNT but doing as much as twice the damage because of the extreme velocity of their impact, approximately 2.1 miles per second. Th  “throw-weight” of the Oreshnik missile munitions was between 6,000 to 10,000  pounds of TNT equivalent. The propulsion power to launch and guide this was between 9,000 and 12,600 pounds. The second Oreshnik was probably loaded as much for psychological and political effect as destructive effect. The Oreshnik can be loaded with a wide variety of munition packages.

See my November 25, 2024, article in the Times Examiner—Oreshnik Hypersonic Missile Strikes Ukraine—for some additional detail on the Oreshnik missile.

An article in Forbes claimed that the Oreshnik’s destructive power was no more than a 2,000-pound bomb and therefore not especially significant. However, in recent years, Forbes has become propagandist media for Project Ukraine, the CIA, and the US military industrial deepstate.  Oreshnik cannot be written off so casually.

In an interview by LCol Daniel Davis, Postal said that the fireball of Oreshnik hits are generally brighter than the sun, and the heat at 5,000 to 6,000 Centigrade degrees is for a moment hotter than the surface of the sun.  Oreshnik heat is capable of starting fires 5 to 7 miles away.  An Oreshnik strike is spectacular in a night sky and can create hurricane-force winds to spread fire and unbearable 100 Centigrade heat—enough to boil water. The roaring thunder of the Oreshnik contributes to its horrific impression. 

Thankfully, it is not as horrific as a nuclear blast and leaves no radio-active tragedy behind it.

The Oreshnik strike, which occurred just before midnight January 8, was part of a larger missile and drone attack on Kyiv and other areas. This included 13 ballistic missile and 22 cruise missile strikes and involved more than 220 drone strikes.

According to sources of former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, the Lviv natural gas storage facilities accounted for 50 percent of Ukrainian natural gas reserves, which were “destroyed” by the Oreshnik strike. This was also stated by Danny Haiphong in an interview with Elina Xenophontos on January 10. However, there is not yet any way to confirm the measure of damage. The Ukrainian regime , however, is evidently under increased stress in regard to natural gas availability.  The strike came about three hours after President Zelensky and the US Embassy in Kyiv warned of an impending Russian aerial attack. The Ukrainian Security Service later shared photos of Oreshnik fragments. The Mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, advised those who could to leave Kyiv, which can no longer  provide sufficient electrical power to residents or water to those living in high-rise apartments.

The Russians have given no official reason for this Oreshnik strike except they intended to reduce Ukrainian and NATO natural gas reserves.

However, this is undoubtedly related to the 91-drone Ukrainian strike near Vladimir Putin’s home near Novgorod. All 91drones were shot down, but the fact that they could get 91 drones near Putin’s home and the nearby strategic defense deterrence facility  was embarrassing.  This should be frightening to those in the West, because harming Putin or the defense deterrence center would have a high probability of resulting in almost immediate nuclear war. The Ukrainians, CIA, and MI6 undoubtedly knew that Putin was protected in the Kremlin, as he most often is. Whatever message the Ukrainians wanted to send to Putin, they also communicated to the world that they are desperate and irresponsible in risking nuclear war endangering all of Europe and North America.  This may have finally turned German, French, and Italian leaders against Ukrainian President Zelensky, whose support in Ukraine has fallen considerably. Many believe regime change is necessary for Ukrainian survival and European safety.

Former Trump National Security Advisor, Lt.Gen. Michael Flynn has been publicly critical of Zelensky’s irresponsibility. He has also evidently concluded that key European Union leaders are more interested in protecting their political careers than peace.

However, the Oreshnik strike is probably also related to the situations in Venezuela and Iran, and European Union threats to strike the Russian homeland. This has been terribly compounded by American forces boarding and ceasing a Russian-owned oil-transport. The US has, however, returned the two Russian crew members, including the captain,  but retained the rest, which ironically included, 8 Georgians, and 22 Ukrainians!

Moreover, the Oreshnik strike was a warning to Washington, NATO, and European Union leadership that the Russians will not back down on Ukraine. They do not want Western Ukraine, but they probably now intend to take the 11 culturally Russian oblasts in eastern and southern Ukraine, including Odessa.  They may take other oblasts east of the Dnieper River as well. Nor are the Russians likely to continue to tolerate any NATO or EU troops anywhere in Ukraine.  It is clearly beyond their Red Line tolerance. It is also a strong indication that the Russians believe they have parity or better than parity in certain elements of military strength—offensive missile capabilities in both numbers and technology, air and missile defense, military industrial production,  conventional artillery and tank numbers and warfare experience, and possibly others.

The two most frequent causes of lost battles and lost wars are underestimating your likely enemy and hubristically overestimating your own capabilities.

Project Ukraine is destroying Ukraine and the hope of peace.

President Trump,  his Cabinet, and Congress have not been well served by a CIA whose agenda and propaganda advocate a globalist 1984ish Orwellian vision of perpetual war against highly fictionalized “enemies.”  

Blind Congressional ignorance of the Ukraine War background going back at least to the Maidan Revolution and coup of 2014 to the reality of the present situation on the battlefield is evidenced by 81members of the US Senate supporting the Graham-Blumenthal Sanctioning Russia Act, S.1241. Among many other backfire prone and ill-considered economic sanctions, Section 17 imposes 500% secondary tariffs on nations buying or selling Russian oil, gas, or uranium. This would do grievous harm to and alienate many of our own important trading partners and tentative allies, actually reducing and isolating US trade options, while provoking Russia and its allies to furious military retaliation. This is a door to senseless and tragic escalation of war, economic disaster, and  Republican minority status in both Houses of Congress.  It will take some courage to move from S.1241 to the truth, but without both courage and truth we are on a path to calamity. 

“Truth is the agreement of our ideas with the ideas of God.”—Jonathan Edwards