Lessons from the Midterm Elections

Truth Is the Only Path to Wisdom

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday November 10, a week after the Midterm November 3 Elections, revealed that 71%  of respondents support legislation to end the Middle East Conflict. According to Reuters, this included 93% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans. Of Republicans, 59% supported the Iran War, and 31% did not. Nearly 10% indicated they either did not know or skipped the question. The poll included 1,705 US adults. But were they citizens and registered voters? These results are similar to other polls on the Iran War, but polling US “adults” without some reference to voting qualifications weakens credibility.

Seventy percent of Independents, which are a large part of the American electorate, supported legislation to end the war. Only 24% of all adults firmly supported the war. This included 47% of Republicans, 20% of Independents, and 6% of Democrats. A new Gallup poll indicates that 45% of Americans consider themselves independents, whatever their party registration—a new high.

The same poll indicated 62% backed repealing Trump’s tariffs on imports. Historically, tariffs, and particularly protectionist tariffs  have often been controversial in American history, but they were passed by Congress and either approved or vetoed by the President. Protectionist high tariffs versus low-tariff  free trade was a cause of major North-South conflicts beginning in 1824 and a major factor in causing Southern States to secede in 1860 and 1861. They continued to impoverish the South until the Underwood Tariff under President Wilson in 1913 began tax reforms reducing national dependence on import tariffs. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, at the beginning of the Great Depression made the depression much worse with US exports falling 61% and  unemployment  peaking in 1933 at almost 25%. High protectionist tariffs tend to benefit some handsomely at the expense of many and to present grave hardships for some. Tariffs essentially redistribute income from the politically weak to the politically powerful. Fortunately, following World War II, Free Trade rather than protectionism dominated US international economic policy—until recently.  

In October, Moody economist Mark Zandi estimated that the Iran War—now spreading across the Middle East—had cost the average American household approximately $2,000. He also estimated that it had cost the US taxpayers $47 billion so far—this seems like a low estimate of the total cost even so far, but it could be a drop in the bucket over the next two years if oil, natural gas, fertilizer, helium, and sulfuric acid remain in short or restricted supply.

The poll also indicated that 42% of Americans fear Trump will be impeached and that will do harm to the country. Only 33% said it would be good for the country.

I follow Rasmussen polling on Trump, because it does not seem to have the usual degree of mainstream media bias toward Democrats and against Republicans. Yesterday and today, it showed Trump at his lowest approval rating of 40-41% approval with 59% disapproval. Only 22% strongly approve of Trump and 46% strongly disapprove of him. The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 32% of “adults” approve of Trump.  The difference may in “adults” versus likely voters and the usual media bias of about 3% against Republicans.  But 41% approval isn’t good, and fits the enormous losses Republicans suffered in the Midterm Elections.

Even so, only 45% of Americans have a favorable view of Democrats, and 51% have an unfavorable opinion. Yet Republicans have definitely taken a beating with only 35% of adults holding a favorable opinion and 60% unfavorable.

An Associated Press poll revealed some shocking results about Republican voters in the 2026 Midterm Elections. Six percent of Republicans voting said their primary motivation was to express opposition to Trump. That was the motivation of 78% of Democrat voters and a whopping 44% of independent voters. Moreover, other polls have indicated that anger against Trump was a significant factor in Republicans not voting.

Not all the Midterm Election results are known, but it is clear that the results were revolutionary. The Republicans held a narrow House majority of 218 to 214 before the election. To date, the Democrats will now have at least 255 seats, and The Republicans at least 167, with 13 not clearly decided. The Republicans in the Senate have gone from a bare majority of 51 to only 44,  with the Democrats at least 54, with two races not decided. 

 In the 19^th Century,  Democrat and Conservative were virtual synonyms, yet the Democrats  are now overwhelmingly left-liberal, especially on social issues, with a strong radical faction. The Republican Party was formed in 1854 with the increasing collapse of the Whig Party following a crushing presidential election in 1852. Most Whigs, including Abraham Lincoln, simply switched to the Republican Party, which had adopted the Whig American Economic System, which included protective tariffs, government funding of infrastructure and key industries, and a national bank. They opposed free trade. The Republicans began to trend toward free trade with William Howard Taft serving from1909 to1913 and especially with Eisenhower in 1952-1960, and Reagan in 1981-1989.  Southern social conservatism and traditional alignment with free trade versus protective tariffs have strongly impacted present Republican Party politics, but the party is still divided between conservatives and establishment “Neocons” reminiscent of the Whigs’ big business-big government orientation. Unlike the Whigs, the Neocons have drifted towards imperialistic interpretations of American Exceptionalism. That sort of Whig economics and imperialist foreign policy among the Republicans alienated and angered a large enough part of the Republican Party to cause a Democrat rout of mostly competent and innocent Republican candidates, who were either poorly informed on the war issues or felt bound to support the President on any war or foreign policy issues.

Incidentally (of course), I have a new book entitled The Morrill Tariff and Its Precedents, available on Amazon.com.  This deals primarily with the causes of the Civil War, but also the economic, moral, and political dangers of tariff systems. See all three of my books under: Leonard M. Scruggs

Unless the Republicans recognize why so many Americans and fellow Republicans are angry and disappointed, they are going to follow the fate of the Whigs.

There are other highly significant issues. Immigration has created a different electorate.

However, I have some hope that Vice President J.D. Vance and new Republican House Leader, Jim Jordean got the message and will act with wisdom and integrity to save the nation from imperialistic wars,  propagandized intelligence, and Neocon economics.

“My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge…”—Hosea 4:6.