Finding Truth in a Blizzard of Propaganda

American Costs and Risks in the Iran War

In one of  retired U.S. Army LCol. Daniel Davis’s YouTube podcasts on April 17, he summarized American costs since the second American and Israeli attack against Iran on February 28.  The first attack, called the 12-day war, occurred between June 13-24, 2025, ending with a brokered ceasefire.  Davis has established one of the most honest and thorough coverages of both the Ukraine and Iran War. He is a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War. He became an outspoken critic and “whistleblower” on the conduct of the Afghanistan War. Although he was nominated to be the Deputy Director of National Intelligence under Director Tusi Gabbard early in 2025, his nomination was essentially blocked by pressure from powerful Congressional and Trump donors associated with the American-Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC).

Here is a brief summary of Davis’s  April 17 report on American costs in the Iran War, which began with a tremendous American and Israeli missile and air bombardment of Iran on February 28, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and hundreds of others.

American deaths and costs

Only13 Americans have been reported killed so far. This number may be understated due to traditional slow-rollout of casualty figures.

400 wounded.

13 American military bases, mostly on the western side of the Persian Gulf, destroyed or unusable or moved to less dangerous regions. This was done by precise Iranian missile and drone strikes.  This could have profound implications for alliance changes in the Middle East.

13 American fixed-wing aircraft destroyed.  This includes several F-15s, one F-35, and an A-10 warthog.

6 helicopters.

24 very expensive MK9 Reaper drones [$30 million each, total cost perhaps $720 million.]

10 huge high-tech radars valued at total loss of $3.5 billion

Total material losses as of April 17 are probably more than $200 billion.  Congress may ask for a total annual military budget of $1.5 trillion this year. Much of this is replenishing losses in Ukraine and Iran.

Estimated Iranian deaths and injured

According to Wikipedia, Iranian deaths so far are between 3,300 and 7,600 including 175 killed in the accidental Tomahawk missile hits on a girls’ school and nearby gym in the first hours of the war on February 28 in the city of Minab in southern Iran.  Independent BBC and New York Times investigators have confirmed that missiles hitting the school and gym were American precision strike weapons. Total Iranian injuries are estimated at 15,000 military and 11,500 civilian.

Davis’s Deep Dive website can be found at: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielDavisDeepDive

Davis is also a conservative Christian unafraid to add Christian perspective to his commentary.  American media, even former conservative bastions like Fox News, are not giving the American people the truth about Ukraine and Iran. Every conservative following international conflicts should check daily for Daniel Davis commentary and interviews on Deep Dive and interviews of Davis by other  commentators.

Trump Friction with Roman Catholic Pope Leo XIV

Roman Catholic Pope Leo XIV has been openly critical of the Iran War and its conduct and has specifically termed some of President Trump’s rhetoric on the War unacceptable.  Trump then lashed out against the Pope, and the controversy was carried further by Fox News Sean Hannity’s criticism of the Pope.  The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops then defended Pope Leo and admonished Trump for his attack on the Pope and by implication Roman Catholic teachings on the requirements of a Just War and Just War Conduct. A just war must be defensive.  Preemptive defensive wars are allowed only on  strict qualifications, since they are widely used by imperialist nations to excuse aggression. The  Trump Administration and its captive media  attacks on the Pope,  the U.S. conference of Catholic Bishops, and Catholic Just War doctrine has had  significant international repercussions.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Maloni was already moving away from supporting Trump on Iran, but Trump’s attack on the Pope was the last straw—a heavy straw. Italy is one of the most religious countries in Europe. About 86 percent of Italians claim to be Roman Catholic. Other polls indicate 84 percent of Italians identify as Christians. The vast majority of these are Roman Catholics. About 5 percent of Americans identify as being of Italian ancestry, and about 7.5 percent identify as either Italian or part-Italian.

Pope Leo is well versed in the Augustinian Theory of Just War. Most American Protestant churches also accept Augustine’s Just War teachings. See my March 26, 2026, Times Examiner article: “Christian Principles of War and Foreign Policy.”

https://www.timesexaminer.com/mike-scruggs/14305-christian-principles-of-war-and-foreign-policy

In my opinion,  the nature of Trump’s and Trump’s media supporters criticism of the Pope and U.S. Catholic Bishops are digging a deeper hole for themselves. Furthermore, they not only show an ignorance of the Biblical issues but give an ignoble impression of shallow moral reasoning.

European  and American Polling on Trump

An April 15 UGov poll indicated that 76 percent of center-right Italian voters have a negative impression of Trump. Ninety-one percent of center-left Italian voters and 72 percent of other voters have a negative impression of Trump. A second Italian poll indicated 81 percent of Italians have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and only 7 percent have a favorable opinion.

Due to Trump’s constant criticism of NATO, recent Trump threats of heavy tariffs, growing reservations about both the Ukraine War and Iran War, and controversies over Trump’s desire to annex Greenland, Trump has very unfavorable ratings in several NATO nations in both February and March polls.  In the March poll in the UK, only 14 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, and 81 percent have an unfavorable opinion. There were no significant changes from February to March in any of the European polls. In France, only 16 percent rated Trump favorably and 78 percent unfavorably. Germany has become one of the most unfavorable to Trump, with only 10 percent favorable and 86 percent unfavorable. In Germany, criticism of Trump is strongest in the conservative  Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) Party, which is now Germany’s largest and fastest growing pollical party. A third Italian poll was 12 percent favorable and 80 percent unfavorable to Trump. In Spain, only 15 percent were favorable and 83 were unfavorable. Spain is refusing to let U.S. aircraft associated with the Iran War land in Spain. Perhaps, because of Trump’s desire to annex Greenland, Denmark has by far the lowest favorability to Trump.  Ninety-four percent have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and only 3 percent have a favorable opinion of him.  Trump’s tariff threats have also left a negative impression on formerly close allies like Canada and India.  

The U.S. Daily Rasmussen Presidential Approval Poll for Trump on April 17 was 43 percent approval  with disapprovals at 54 percent.

Blockades and Negotiations

Under International Law, Blockades are an act of War. However, Iran recently announced that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was completely open, following a 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. On Saturday, April 18, it all came apart. Israel broke the cease-fire in Lebanon,  and two Iranian gunboats fired warning shots at a departing tanker. President Trump announced the Blackade he instituted on March 26 was still in effect. Trump also announced April17 that negotiations in progress might quickly resolve the U.S conflict with Iran. The stock markets rose significantly Friday, and WTC Oil dropped over 9 percent to $82.59 per barrel. This may reverse considerably by Monday.

According to pro-Trump sources, the Blockade is working well—allegedly that 23 ships have been stopped.  According to former CIA podcaster Larry Johnson, the Blockade was never a 

reality, and reports 23 successes are phony propaganda  When the threat of Iranian missiles is holding U.S. aircraft carriers to a minimum distance of 620 miles from Iran, one wonders whether a U.S. Blockade is feasible. At least four tankers have departed the Persian Gulf. One was a French tanker carrying petroleum fertilizer components, and another was Chinese. Both the Chinese and Russians have warned of serious consequences if their ships are stopped. Iran is now choosing which nations’ ships can enter or depart the Persian Gulf. Many ships are not moving because London insurers believe the risks are too high.

Sunday afternoon, April 19, President Trump announced that an Iranian flagged tanker had been disabled and boarded by Marines. Stock market futures are down significantly.

If negotiations continue, the Iranians will probably agree not to produce nuclear weapons but will not agree to anything but reasonable enrichment limits on nuclear enrichment for the purpose of nuclear power and medical applications. It is questionable whether Iran would give up its 950-pound stockpile of enriched uranium without formidable compensation or other advantages. Iran will certainly insist on the U.S. removing financial sanctions, some of which they have endured for 47 years. The U.S. wants Iran’s missile program curtailed.

Here are Iran’s  REPUTED 10 negotiation points: (There are several variations of them, so they are vulnerable to media alteration for propaganda purposes.)

1 Permanent U.S. non-aggression Guarantee for Iran.

2 Iranian Control of Strait of Hormuz.

3a Iran would agree to NO Nuclear Weapons, but 3b, have reasonable uranium  enrichment rights for nuclear power and medical applications.

4 Lifting of all primary and secondary U.S. Sanctions on Iran

5 Release of frozen Iranian assets.

6 Compensation for war damages.

7 Complete withdrawal of U.S combat forces from the Middle East.

8 Ceasefire across all fronts including Lebanon and Iran-backed groups.  The Lebanon conflict is complex involving not only the Lebanese minority government, but Shia Muslim Hezbollah, and Israel.

9 Iranian use of Hormuz Strait fees for reconstruction.

10 A binding UN Security Council resolution.

The primary go-between negotiation contact for Iran and the U.S. is Pakistan. Israel obviously has a strong interest in this. Russia and China also have a strong interest in regional stability and maintaining Iran as a strong economic and military ally. Both the Chinese and Russians are 

contributing to Iranian intelligence and offensive and defensive technology. The Gulf States also have an existential necessity of ending the war. Kuwait, Qatar, Bharain, and the UAE have potable water risks due to high dependence on desalinization plants. Destruction of desalinization plants would threaten their survival if war continues.

Iranian war technologies should not be underestimated. It might be of interest to know that according to 2025 International IQ test results, Iran ranked 4th in the world with an average of 106.3. The top ten were China, 107.3; South Korea, 106.43; Japan, 106.4; Iran, 106.3, Singapore, 105.1; Russia, 6th with 103.2; Mongolia!, 102.9; Armenia, 102.6; Australia 102.6, and Spain 102.3. The U.S. was not among the 125 countries tested. This particular multi-lingual test gives spatial intelligence disproportionate weight over verbal and mathematical reasoning. Iran has especially formidable technology and engineering higher education.  

The United States and the rest of the world have deep economic urgencies to end the Iran War. Despite the U.S. relative energy independence, it will still be affected by severe material shortages and higher energy costs. We already have a baked-in recession resulting from the present loss of energy resources, which should be more evident by August. Further delay in restoring energy resource levels could result in a  depression comparable to the Great Depression of 1929 to 1939. Unemployment peaked in 1931 at 25.1 percent.

Hence for economic and political reasons, Trump has a strong incentive to end the Iran conflict. Ending it quickly by substantially escalating military force could prove futile and disastrous. Underestimating Iran and highly potential assistance from China and Russia, and a tendency to careless hubris in evaluating our own capabilities could result in hard consequences and expanded war. This could have an especially disastrous impact on the Gulf States and probably Israel, which is currently unable to prevent Iranian missiles from penetrating its “Iron Dome” missile defenses. Substantially higher U.S. aircraft and naval losses are a realistic probability. Trump needs to de-prioritize win-win optics and make some compromises to get an acceptable deal for all sides. It will not be easy, but it will be beneficial to the American nation. However, as of Sunday evening, high-risk aggressive actions are being urged on Trump, which could have grave consequences for Trump, American prosperity and security, and Republican election results in November.  

Recommended Resources

Besides, LCol Daniel Davis, I would especially recommend finding the following on YouTube: Col (ret) Douglas Macgregor, University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer, University of SE Norway Professor Glenn Diesen, and former British diplomat and British MI6 intelligence officer Alastair Crooke. For missile and nuclear weapons technology, I would recommend MIT Professor Ted Postal. I have already mentioned former CIA and Homeland Security officer Larry Johnson in this article. For a thorough one-hour plus daily briefing I would recommend British attorney Alexander Mercouris and his Duran partner Alex Christoforou. Two other favorites are former Reagan Presidential Cabinet CIA briefer and Russian expert Ray McGovern, and military 

weapons expert and former Marine intelligence officer, Scott Ritter. Many of these are frequently interviewed by Judge Andrew Napolitano on his Judging Freedom program.  There are at least a dozen more I should have mentioned.  The most important thing for most Americans is to find alternative news sources outside the lock-step narratives of the propaganda blizzard orchestrated by most mainstream media, including especially Fox.

Because of the untimely unraveling of the ceasefire and additional controversy over blockade and control over the Strait of Hormuz, and especially the complexity of the situation in Lebanon, I am adding a 53-minute video interview of Ambassador Chas Freeman, former Asst. Secretary of Defense, interviewed by Norwegian Professor of International Relations Glenn Diesen. Freeman is critical of current U.S. practices of conducting foreign policy by media manipulation. Consequences of this include very volatile stock market and oil price movements.

Chas Freeman: Diplomacy Fails - Strait of Hormuz Shut Down Again

Freeman was President Nixon’s main translator during his 1972 trip to China and was Ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1989 to 1992.

“If it is possible, as far as it depends on you, live at peace with everyone.”—Romans 12:18.

“Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God.”—Matthew 5:9