Alarming Indication of Possible Cross-Purposes with NATO
Outside of U.S. forces, Türkiye has the largest and most powerful armed forces in Europe and West Asia. By approximately July 17, the Turkish Navy had deployed 14 capital ships between Cyprus and three major Turkish Navy bases on its Aegean and Mediterranean coasts, probably Aksaz, Foca-Izmir, and Iskenderun. This might be only a training exercise, but it could also be a strong statement of changing Turkish alignments.
Moreover, Cyprus has been the scene of ongoing ethnic conflicts and tensions between Greek and Turkish Cypriots and Greece and Türkiye since 1955. Cyprus gained its independence from the United Kingdom in August 1960. The island of Cyprus is about 75% Greek Christian and 25% Turkish Muslim. In 1974, reacting to a Greek Cypriot nationalist and Greek military coup that would have made Cyprus part of Greece, a Turkish invasion effectively divided Cyprus into an autonomous northern Turkish government and the southern Republic of Cyprus. About 200,000 people were displaced. The population of the southern Republic is currently about 923,000. The northern Turkish state has a population of 383,000 The northern Federated State of Cyprus declared its independence in 1983. This is recognized only by Türkiye, although it should be acknowledged that the Northern Turkish Muslims would be terribly unhappy to be a minority in a predominantly Greek Christian republic.
Just saying, placing regions with distinctive ethnic, language, and religious majorities under the political dominance of rulers foreign and unsympathetic to them is a recipe for immense trouble..
Cyprus is thus divided between an ethnic Greek Christian population in the southern portion of Cyprus and a Muslim Turkish population on the northern portion of the island. The British maintain two military bases in southern Cyprus with about 8,000 military personnel.
However, Türkiye has other geopolitical concerns that are not compatible with current NATO and U.S. military and political actions. Some of these concerns have been brewing for decades.
Türkiye has naval and military forces beyond the Bosporus on the Black Sea and on its Aegean and Mediterranean coasts.
Included in the 14 capital ships now somewhat menacingly deployed between Cyprus and Türkiye are 2 modern frigates capable of offensive missile attacks, 4 corvettes, 3 submarines, and 5 large logistical ships. In addition to the 14, are 2 mine-warfare ships. Turkish naval missiles range from 60 to 600 miles. The Corvettes have mostly defensive or shorter range offensive missiles, but also have anti-ship missiles with up to150-mile range. The Turks also have a drone aircraft carrier at one of their Mediterranean naval bases. More than 80% of Turkish naval missiles are Turkish designed and manufactured and not dependent on U.S. or NATO sources. This is a self-sufficient defense strategy very similar to that of Iran. The immense logistical preparation indicates these Turkish warships now deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean might have more than a short-term training cruise in mind.
A huge factor in Türkiye’s culture and geopolitical outlook is that its population is 99.8% Muslim. A Pew Research Survey completed in March 2026 indicated 97% of Turkish respondents in face to face interviews indicated a negative opinion of Israel. This was the highest disapproval rate of 24 countries surveyed. Four other Muslim countries indicated 85-95% negative opinions, of which Pakistan led with 95%.
Negative opinions of Israel have risen sharply since a March 2022 Pew Survey. This is undoubtedly partly due to the high number of civilian deaths occurring in Gaza. The British Medical Journal Lancet estimated in March 2026 that Israeli military operations in Gaza had caused 75,000 violent deaths and 16,000 indirect deaths from the deprivations of war, bringing the total to 91,000. According the Lancet, these deaths were disproportionately women and children. The conflict began with the Hamas attack and massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023.
However, the March 2026 surveys were probably heavily influenced by the attack on Iran by Israel and the United States on February 28, 2026. Negative impressions of Israel jumped more then 10 points in five NATO countries—Poland, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Sweden—to negative levels of 70-78%. In the United States, negative opinions of Israel rose from 44% in 2022 to 60% in 2026, with Republicans being the least negative. Israel’s best friend seems to be India.
The bottom line here is that Türkiye and predominantly Muslim countries generally are quite uncomfortable with US military assistance to Israeli war aims in both Gaza and Iran. Moreover, many of our best European allies are uncomfortable with the growing violence and spread of the Iran War.
A Türkiye Today poll in March 2026 indicated that 68% of Turkish respondents preferred to stay neutral in the Iran War with the US and Israel. However, only 2 percent favored the American and Israeli positions. About 11 times than number, 22%, expressed support for Iran. In the same poll, 93% of Turks opposed US and Israeli strikes against Iran, 95% saying there was no justification, and 94% distrusting US negotiations. A Gallup poll also indicated Pakistan and Türkiye showed the highest favorability to Iran.
Additionally, Turkish President Erdogan and other Turkish government officials have expressed sympathy and support for Iran. Erdogan has openly sympathized with and identified with the Muslim Brotherhood and seems to be positioning himself as the most important political leader in the Muslim World. Erdogan is also paying more attention to Islamic traditions and paying less attention to secularist voters. Erdogan has indicated he favors survival of the present Iranian government in order to bring needed stability to the Middle East. He has strongly condemned US and Israeli military operations against Iran and condemned them as clear violations of international law (4-9-2026 to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian).
Erdogan is also upset that President Trump has not approved F-35 jets for the Turkish Air Force, although Trump encouraged him on that in a visit to Ankara on July 8 for a NATO Summit. The US also has sanctions on Türkiye for buying S-400 defense missiles from Russia, which Erdogan wants removed. In the meantime, the Russians are courting favor with the Turks, and Erdogan seems to be reciprocating the interests. The Russia-China-Iran alliance is formidable. Is there mutual interest in a super-powerful foursome. Despite past problems with Islam, Russian President Putin has been doing remarkably well keeping good relations with Muslim countries. The Russian Federation has 8 majority-Muslim autonomous republics. Yet Russia is now one of the most Christian nations in the world with 63% Christians, very close to the United States with 65%, but the Russian Federation has a Muslim population of 8%. Incidentally, a huge proportion of Israeli Jews are ethnic Russians, 1.3 million or 15%.
Another sore spot for Türkiye is that it has been rejected for European Union membership for years. However, much of Europe is already over-run with ethnic Turkish Muslims, and they are beginning to realize the unwanted cultural and political consequences. This is usually left unsaid, but opening EU membership to Türkiye would probably be an existential threat to European Civilization. Most EU members are also NATO members.
Erdogan has made Syria a Turkish vassal state, which Israel wants a part of and influence over the rest. Israel has already unwisely stated that once Iran is defeated, Türkiye is next. The US is also an ally of Syrian Kurds. As we explored last week, the Kurds are a threat to Türkiye. The US is also allying with the Kurds in Iran to help overthrow the Iranian government.
Another factor could be the Suez Canal. The Suez Canal is a 120-mile artificial waterway, including some lakes, beginning at its north end at Port Said, on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt, and connecting to the Red Sea on its southern end at Port Suez, Egypt. It varies from 200 to 345 meters in width. About 8% of world trade goes through it, connecting Europe to East Africa and the Indian Ocean and southern and southeastern Asia. Over 50 ships per day pass through the Suez Canal. The Red Sea has two choke points, the Suez Canal in the north and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait near Yemen in the south. About 15% of oil and gas shipments go through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Add the Suez Canal and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to the Hormuz Strait on the Persian Gulf now controlled by Iran and controlling 20% of oil shipments to the world, and you control a huge part of the world economy.
Within the last few hours, a Houthi Yemeni general announced the beginning of blockade controls over the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Egypt is a strong ally of the US, but 85% of Egyptians oppose recognition of Israel as a nation, and the Egyptians are angry about what Israel is doing to Gaza. The Turks would not have to control the Suez Canal to form a choke-point. They could control access to the Suez from the Mediterranean.
The most prevalent Biblical tradition of the Exodus 14 account of where the Israelites crossed the Red Sea is the Suez Finger of the Red Sea. Others, however, now believe there is some evidence that the crossing was on the Aqaba Finger of the Red Sea.
Israel has three major ports: Haifa and Ashdod on the Mediterranean Sea and Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba leading into the Red Sea. Haifa and Ashdod have incurred extensive damage from Iranian missiles. Eilat has incurred some hits from Houthi Yemeni missiles.
Of course, everybody who watches Fox News knows the United States is the most powerful nation in the world with no one even close and is winning the Iran War. So shouldn’t Erdogan stay on the winning side? Well, the Russians, Chinese, and even the Iranians and Turks are beginning to catch up and even exceed US military capabilities in some critical areas, such as hypersonic missiles, to name just one. Perhaps the Fox News Narrative is essentially CIA and corporatist propaganda desperately and blindly promoting the continuation of both the Iran and Ukraine wars, neglecting any contrary facts or analysis. Perhaps Erdogan is not so sure that the United States is going to have the influence in the Middle East in the future as it did before the Iran War. Qatar and other Persian Gulf states may also be rethinking their political alliances. The Turks also consider Israel an enemy that has plainly expressed an intent to destroy them.
The British, the Greeks, and the Greek Cypriots have cause to worry about Turkish intentions. But so do NATO, the United States, and especially Israel. Most emphatically, that is not the end of it. The stability of the Middle East is vitally important to the world economy. Why do polls show 83% of the Japanese have a negative opinion of Israel—Japan is almost entirely dependent on imports for oil and gas.
Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't going away.” – Elvis Presley
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie, deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.”— President John F. Kennedy
Mike Scruggs is the author of two books: The Un-Civil War: Shattering the Historical Myths; and Lessons from the Vietnam War: Truths the Media Never Told You, and over 600 articles on military history, national security, intelligent design, genealogical genetics, immigration, current political affairs, Islam, and the Middle East. 
